Are the better traders closer to 100% winning trades, or is that just the way it seems? In contrast, the closer the traders are to 0%; it would seem that they are worse. There is more to trading than winning the most possible trades, even though that seems peculiar. This article will hopefully help fill you in on why I would argue that a 95% win rate is infinitely worse than a 65% win rate.
First we'll take a look at traders with a low win rate. We will classify 0% to ~40% as low. If a trader fits into this range, then the closer they are to zero probably means the worse they are. Most traders in this lower range are losing traders. You will occasionally find a trader who attempts to catch very large moves with very tight stops. This type of trader may have an extremely low win % and still be a very successful trader.
Next, let us look at the 40% - 70% range. Most of your winning traders will fall somewhere in here. They win not because the majority of their trades are winners with few losers. It is quite possible that have more losing trades than winning ones. Their success comes from their ability to correctly manage their trades once opened. They take advantage of stops that will then be executed more often than not. This looks for all the world like a losing trade, and it is, but a small loser. The traders that can manage their trades effectively most often are the ones that are able to cut their losses and allow their winners to take off. There are very few traders out there who have the discipline to take advantage of this simple concept.
The last group are those with a very high win % (over 70%). It seems the closer to 100% these traders get, the more people want to trade their signals. Unfortunately the opposite is probably the correct play. These traders win an incredibly high amount of the time because they often take profit off of the table as soon as it appears. This strategy is fine if you also plan to cut losses in that manner. But traders with 95% win rates and above do not have this strategy in mind. Rather than accepting a small loss and moving on with their day, they will let a loser run indefinitely and even add to that position in many cases. This eventually wipes out months or more of winning trades all at once and in the end has no chance of success. One 500 pip loser wipes out 500 one pip winners. Keep in mind that this trader would have well over 99% winning trades and still be an over all loser.
Do not think for one minute that the reason for this article is to convince you that no trader outside the specified ranges is automatically a losing trader. I'm quite sure that there are traders that are successful with a win percent falling outside of the above ranges. The point of this article is to lead you to thoroughly investigate the trader with the 95% win rate as he could implode upon himself (and you) at any minute. - 31876
First we'll take a look at traders with a low win rate. We will classify 0% to ~40% as low. If a trader fits into this range, then the closer they are to zero probably means the worse they are. Most traders in this lower range are losing traders. You will occasionally find a trader who attempts to catch very large moves with very tight stops. This type of trader may have an extremely low win % and still be a very successful trader.
Next, let us look at the 40% - 70% range. Most of your winning traders will fall somewhere in here. They win not because the majority of their trades are winners with few losers. It is quite possible that have more losing trades than winning ones. Their success comes from their ability to correctly manage their trades once opened. They take advantage of stops that will then be executed more often than not. This looks for all the world like a losing trade, and it is, but a small loser. The traders that can manage their trades effectively most often are the ones that are able to cut their losses and allow their winners to take off. There are very few traders out there who have the discipline to take advantage of this simple concept.
The last group are those with a very high win % (over 70%). It seems the closer to 100% these traders get, the more people want to trade their signals. Unfortunately the opposite is probably the correct play. These traders win an incredibly high amount of the time because they often take profit off of the table as soon as it appears. This strategy is fine if you also plan to cut losses in that manner. But traders with 95% win rates and above do not have this strategy in mind. Rather than accepting a small loss and moving on with their day, they will let a loser run indefinitely and even add to that position in many cases. This eventually wipes out months or more of winning trades all at once and in the end has no chance of success. One 500 pip loser wipes out 500 one pip winners. Keep in mind that this trader would have well over 99% winning trades and still be an over all loser.
Do not think for one minute that the reason for this article is to convince you that no trader outside the specified ranges is automatically a losing trader. I'm quite sure that there are traders that are successful with a win percent falling outside of the above ranges. The point of this article is to lead you to thoroughly investigate the trader with the 95% win rate as he could implode upon himself (and you) at any minute. - 31876
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