Examining Draw Downs When Selecting A Forex Signal Provider

By Tom K Kearns

So, you are in the market for a third party signal provider. The maximum draw down of the trader is your first step in the selection process. To define the maximum draw down - this is the gap between the ultimate amount of loss between the absolute top and the absolute bottom. Included in this number is also the open positions, but not included is the account margin necessary to keep you away from a margin call. How much is too much of a draw down you may well ask. Of course, like many answers to many questions, it is - That depends. Many, many issues need to be examined when coming up with an answer to this very important question. It goes without saying that a person with an account in the high thousands of dollars can stand more of a draw down than a person with a much smaller account. So, that being said, what are some other things to consider?

You have the draw down number. How was that number derived? If the draw down number seems intolerable to you but other factors make the trader a good bet, examine the number of positions the trader opens at a single time. Say he opens 5 trades on whatever pair at one time, right away you can cut their recorded draw down by 5. If a trader's number of open trades is limited, that alone severely reduces the entire draw down figure.

Sometimes you will find a trader who has a great track record aside from one major meltdown where a single trade ran out of control for days unchecked. This will produce an abnormal draw down in relation to the trader's real ability. He may be the kind of guy who can't recognize when a trade has no chance of coming back to even. He may also be a guy who lost his internet connection at an inopportune time once or twice. Either way you can keep this trader from doing this to your account by setting your own stops for him. Just make sure that you only stop out his trades that are well out of a realistic trading range.

Now that we're half way down the page lets revisit our original question. After doing anything and everything you can to limit draw down, I would say that anything over 35% of your entire account equity is just too much. Once you start to get into a situation where you are losing 50% or more it is very tough to ever recover without taking extreme risks. If you lose 50% you need to make 100% just to get back to even.

When considering draw down you should also look at how much history is available on that trader. If he only has 3 weeks of history than chances are that his largest draw down is yet to come. If he has 50 or 100 weeks of history he has probably already hit some rough patches and you can get a better idea of how rough the rough patches are for that particular trader.

You must constantly monitor your traders on all of your accounts, whether live or demo. Should any draw down run rampant, you will need to reevaluate and possibly delete the trader from your active portfolio. - 31876

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